Former Gov. Hugh Carey liked to tell this story about first entering office following the long Rockefeller/Wilson years of “wine and roses.”

Wine and roses meant that Nelson Rockefeller never worried about the cost of anything or any new state program. Malcolm Wilson paid the price when he ran for governor after Rocky became Ford’s vice president. Carey was the next governor.

“It was like walking into one of those fancy cocktail parties,” Carey said. “All the men were wearing evening clothes, the women dressed in gorgeous gowns, dripping jewelry. Everyone was laughing at something, laughing, laughing. I didn’t get the joke.

“On the way out, the last man handed me the bill.”

I wouldn’t call Steve Noble’s almost 11 years in office wine and roses, maybe beer and peanuts. But Noble’s tenure has been one of growth at City Hall of tax and spend. At one point, and I thought it came last year, I started hearing people ask if this trend was sustainable. Next year’s mayoral budget calls for a near 10 percent increase in spending gives even further pause.

Did Noble read the handwriting on the wall? Heck, it was his handwriting and an all-too-willing Common Council rubber-stamped it. Did he decide to get out early before facing voters a year from now, undoubtedly with a budget even more onerous than the one he presented the council in October?

I cannot read the mayor’s mind; these decisions are made with family and the closest advisors. As detailed further on, Noble has options.

Last Friday, about the time everybody was getting ready for the weekend, Noble announced he would not seek a fourth term in office. Elected in 2015, “the boy mayor” defeated incumbent Shayne Gallo in a Democratic primary to all but secure his future in this heavily Democratic town.

Noble’s emailed announcement was hardly news to insiders, so much so that the first would-be candidate to succeed him, Ninth Ward Alderwoman and Common Council Majority Leader Michele Hirsch, hit the papers with her announcement in the same edition as the mayor’s swan song. There will be others.

Hirsch, who obviously had planned for this possibility, wasted little time in recruiting a big name supporter. Assemblywoman Sarahana Shrestha, who usually doesn’t dabble in local politics, was effusive in her endorsement of a fellow progressive.

According to the rumor mill at 420 Broadway, Noble has been “headed for Albany” for half of this last term. That he announced his retirement within 48 hours of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s landslide re-election gives some credence to that.

Hochul will restock her administration for the coming term, and what better place to look than down the river to a seasoned mayor, a notable environmentalist, someone who checks most of the boxes, than Noble?

This brings into question when, exactly, Noble will actually leave. If he serves out his term, ending on Dec. 31, 2027, that’s one thing. But if he leaves any time before that, dominoes start to fall.

By charter, the alderman-at-large, Council President Andrea Shaut, automatically becomes mayor if the mayor’s office falls vacant for any reason.

Classmates in the Kingston High School Class of 2000 (along with a guy named Pat Ryan), Shaut and Noble went to middle school together. They go back.

But not far back enough where Noble would give his two-time running mate and sometimes critic the courtesy of a heads-up before he announced his plans to the public.

“When did you learn about the news?” I asked her. “Pretty much like the rest of Kingston,” she said, seemingly without rancor.

Will she be a candidate? “It’s too soon,” she said, but she did offer that there might have to be some constraints on spending going forward. Sounds like a pinky in the water.

The mayor’s office, any office in Kingston, is virtually a Democratic affair. Republicans are not in play.

There are any number of possibilities that can emerge over the next few months. Nominating conventions will be held around March, so there’s plenty of time for would-be candidates to wheel and deal.

A groundswell for the mayor might develop. Noble might change his mind. Maybe the governor’s offer, if there is one, might not be to his liking. Presently, Noble can ride his bike to City Hall. Albany is at least 50 miles, door-to door. I rather doubt that scenario.